The former Kaduna governor’s explosive exit from APC raises questions about party stability, opposition unity, and his own political future. Will this be a repeat of 2013 or just another failed rebellion?
A Political Earthquake?
Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, has sent shockwaves through Nigeria’s political landscape by publicly attacking the All Progressives Congress (APC)—a party he helped build—and announcing his political realignment with the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
In a recent BBC Hausa interview, El-Rufai criticized President Bola Tinubu, accusing his administration of failing Nigerians and reneging on APC’s founding principles. He further called for opposition leaders like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, and Rauf Aregbesola to unite under the SDP to challenge APC in 2027.
Unsurprisingly, the APC swiftly hit back, dismissing his claims as personal grievances stemming from his failed ministerial appointment bid.
But beneath the war of words lies a bigger question: Is El-Rufai’s move the beginning of an opposition realignment, or just another political tantrum? This analysis breaks down the key implications from four major angles.
Political Fallout: Is APC Facing an Internal Crisis?
El-Rufai’s defection exposes underlying tensions within APC, despite the party’s efforts to downplay any internal crisis. His statement that APC is now controlled by a “Lagos political elite” suggests growing discontent among non-Lagos factions.
Signs of Internal Fractures
🔹 APC Publicity Secretary Felix Morka dismissed El-Rufai’s criticism as “sulking and selfishness”, insisting that APC remains strong.
🔹 However, El-Rufai is not an ordinary defector—he was a founding member of APC and a key strategist in its 2015 and 2019 victories. 🔹 His frustration with the inner workings of the Tinubu-led APC raises concerns about whether other sidelined power players share his sentiments but have not yet spoken out.
While APC leaders have closed ranks to counter El-Rufai’s attacks, the deeper question remains: Could this be an early sign of further defections? If more APC stalwarts feel marginalized, the party may face a growing credibility crisis before the 2027 elections.
El-Rufai’s Political Future: Can He Lead a New Opposition Movement?
El-Rufai’s call for a united opposition under the SDP is an ambitious gamble.
🔹 He wants Atiku Abubakar (PDP), Peter Obi (Labour Party), Rotimi Amaechi, and Rauf Aregbesola (disgruntled APC members) to join SDP as a grand coalition against APC. 🔹 While the idea of a mega-opposition alliance is logical, history suggests it will not be easy to achieve.
Challenges Facing an Opposition Coalition
Atiku Abubakar (PDP) has built his brand within the PDP and is unlikely to abandon his long-term presidential ambitions for SDP.
Peter Obi (Labour Party) enjoys a cult-like following and may not see the SDP as a viable alternative to Labour’s rising movement.
Amaechi & Aregbesola have their own political battles within APC but have not made any commitment to El-Rufai’s call.
Outcome Scenarios:
If El-Rufai succeeds in wooing key opposition figures, the SDP could emerge as a formidable third force.If his plan fails, he could become politically isolated, much like previous defectors who overestimated their influence.
APC’s Counterargument: Is El-Rufai Just Bitter?
The APC has aggressively dismissed El-Rufai’s attacks as a personal vendetta, arguing that:
🔹 El-Rufai is bitter over his failed ministerial bid and is using ideological criticism as a smokescreen for personal disappointment.
🔹 The claim that Tinubu has failed is exaggerated, as his administration has made progress on economic reforms, security, and infrastructure.
🔹 Nigerians “see through El-Rufai’s selfish motives”, and his criticism will not resonate widely.
Assessing the Credibility of APC’s Defense
✅ True: El-Rufai did express frustration after being denied a ministerial position due to alleged security clearance issues.
✅ Debatable: While Tinubu’s economic policies have had long-term benefits (e.g., fuel subsidy removal), the short-term hardship on Nigerians cannot be ignored.
APC’s response is strategically aimed at damage control, but if public discontent grows, dismissing critics as “bitter politicians” may not be enough to hold the party together.
Historical Parallels: Is This Another 2013 Moment?
El-Rufai’s move resembles past defections that reshaped Nigerian politics:
2013 PDP Defections → Birth of APC:
- PDP heavyweights like Atiku, Saraki, and Amaechi left the party and merged with opposition forces to create APC. The result?
- APC defeated PDP in 2015.
2018 APC Crisis → But Buhari Survived:
- APC lost key figures like Bukola Saraki and Sokoto’s Tambuwal. Yet, Buhari still won re-election in 2019.
2025: El-Rufai’s Gambit?
- If he gains allies, history could repeat itself, and APC might face a 2013-style mass defection.
- If he remains isolated, it could be another 2018 moment, where APC weathers the storm and consolidates power.
Key Indicators to Watch:
🔹 Do more APC insiders publicly express discontent?
🔹 Will any high-profile figures follow El-Rufai into SDP?
🔹 Can APC’s internal crisis be managed, or will divisions deepen?
Is APC Cracking or Consolidating?
El-Rufai’s defection has set the stage for a potential political realignment, but whether it will gain momentum or fade away depends on how both the opposition and APC play their cards.
🔹 If APC can reconcile internal rifts, it may maintain its dominance in 2027.
🔹 If discontent spreads, El-Rufai could become the catalyst for a major political shift.
One thing is clear: the battle lines for Nigeria’s 2027 elections are already being drawn. 🚨
📢 What’s your take? Will El-Rufai’s move shake APC, or is this just another political drama? Drop your thoughts in the comments! ⬇️🔥
