The removal of Mudashiru Obasa as Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly has triggered the most significant political crisis in President Bola Tinubu’s decades-long dominance over Lagos politics. Below is a comprehensive analysis of the unfolding drama, its drivers, and its implications for Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
The Crisis Unfolds: Obasa’s Ouster and Tinubu’s Embarrassment
Obasa, a key Tinubu ally and Speaker since 2015, was impeached on January 13, 2025, by 36 lawmakers over allegations of misconduct, abuse of office, and financial mismanagement115. His deputy, Mojisola Meranda, was swiftly sworn in as Lagos’ first female Speaker, signaling a seismic shift in the Assembly’s leadership115.
Contrary to initial speculation, Tinubu was not consulted about the impeachment, leaving him “embarrassed” and “betrayed”. Sources reveal his dismay that the Governance Advisory Council (GAC)—Lagos APC’s apex body—supported the lawmakers’ move without his approval, marking an unprecedented rebellion against his authority.
The Power Struggle: Factions, 2027 Ambitions, and Lagos Indigenes
The crisis is rooted in three interlocking factors:
- 2027 Governorship Race: Obasa’s alleged governorship ambitions made him a target for rivals within the APC, particularly Lagos indigenes seeking to consolidate power15.
- Factional Rivalry: The Mandate Group (Tinubu’s faction) and the Justice Forum are locked in a battle for control of Lagos APC. Obasa, a Mandate loyalist, faced opposition from Justice Forum-aligned lawmakers and GAC members15.
- Indigenous Power Play: Lagos indigenes within the GAC reportedly orchestrated Obasa’s removal to assert dominance over the state’s political structure15.
Tinubu’s Countermove and Lawmakers’ Defiance
To reassert control, Tinubu directed the GAC to pressure lawmakers into reinstating Obasa, allowing him to resign honorably. However, in a marathon meeting on February 3, 37 of 39 lawmakers rejected the directive, opting instead to send Tinubu an apology letter explaining their stance. A six-member GAC delegation tasked with delivering the letter to Abuja was denied an audience with the President, deepening the standoff15.
Key Resistance Factors:
- Meranda’s Popularity: The new Speaker, a Lagos indigene, enjoys support from feminist groups and grassroots factions, making her removal politically risky.
- Distrust of Obasa: Lawmakers accused Obasa of autocratic leadership and financial mismanagement, including controversial expenditures like ₦43.5 billion for “backup vehicles”.
- Governor Sanwo-Olu’s Alleged Role: Though Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu publicly distanced himself, calling the impeachment a “legislative matter,” insiders allege he financed the rebellion to weaken Tinubu’s grip and position himself for 2027. His Special Adviser, Gboyega Akosile, dismissed these claims, but sources insist Sanwo-Olu is “playing the devil’s advocate”.
Implications for Tinubu’s Legacy and Lagos APC
- Erosion of Authority: This is the first major challenge to Tinubu’s “godfather” status in Lagos. A party chieftain noted, “This crisis is a significant test for him…political betrayal of this magnitude cannot be overlooked”15.
- Party Fractures: The GAC is divided, with members like Fouad Oki urging respect for the Assembly’s independence, while others, like Joe Igbokwe, downplay the crisis.
- 2027 Fallout: The turmoil signals early jostling for the governorship, with Obasa’s removal seen as a preemptive strike against a potential rival
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The Road Ahead
The standoff remains unresolved, with Tinubu weighing his next move. Lawmakers’ refusal to backtrack—coupled with Meranda’s rising influence—suggests Lagos politics may be entering a post-Tinubu era. As one APC insider warned, “The progressive structure in Lagos may never remain the same”15.
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